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Conspiracy Coefficient: 2007 West Conference Playoff Picture
04/20/07
by Stretch
How’s this for a stat: 2 of the last 3 NBA champions have been from the Eastern Conference. What?
Put plainly, the East sucks. Denver, currently facing a first round extinction at the hands of Chuckles and his Spurs, could beat just about anybody from the East in a 7-game series, except for possibly Detroit. Barring a repeat of last year’s Dwayning by the officials, you have to think the odds are pretty good that the West will be taking home the trophy this year.
Speaking of Wade’s Secret Service Corps, with each preview I write I will be including a spiffy Conspiracy/Officiating Statistic (+-5), which will measure the impact of who the refs/Stern/Illuminati would theoretically be rigging the games in favor of.
Also, in the interest of fair disclosure, I am an irrational Spurs fan.
FIRST ROUND:
Dallas (1) versus Golden State (8)
Thank goodness the Clippers didn’t make it in. What a depressing team. They would have gotten SLAUGHTERED by the Mavs….but the Warriors? Now that could be a different story. On the one hand, the Mavs have to be the favorites to win it all. Dirk is Dirk and they are deep and hungry and all that. BUT….Don Nelson! He knows the secret codes of the Dallas mainframe! He taught Andris Biedrins how to counter the secret ninja moves that all the Dallas players use! He can get psychological with Avery Johnson, the same way the Hawks coach psyched out Emilio Estevez in “Mighty Ducks!” Prediction: No guts, no glory! Golden State in six, dadgum it!
Conspiracy Coefficient: Golden State +1
You have to think that, theoretically, the refs will pull slightly toward the underdogs. I don’t think there will be a full-fledged Warrior love-in, mainly because it’s hard to believe that the league would still have a vendetta out for Dallas at this point. Mark Cuban has been rather quiet (for him) since the Finals debacle (“Wadegate”). But, after all, David Stern does eat breakfast cereal made from newborn’s toes, so there’s no telling what kinds of payback he might decree.
Houston (4) versus Utah (5)
I cannot say this clearly enough: Utah will methodically pummel Houston in this series. The Jazz will win. Kirilenko has been alternately lost and disappointing this season, and the Jazz STILL rolled over everyone in the Northwest division. Who exactly is going to guard Mehmet Okur when he prances around the arc looking to fling up some triads? If you answered either “C) Yao Ming” or “D) Juwan Howard” then you proved my point. Houston is just not put together to win in the playoffs. Again, if they were in the East, they would probably be challenging for a trip to the Finals. But they are not, and they will not. Prediction: Jazz in six.
Conspiracy Coefficient: Houston +4.5
There is but one caveat to my Jazz prediction: Dick Bavetta! If there is one first round series that the NBA will attempt to pseudo-fix, THIS IS IT. Eleventy billion Chinese fans and their pockets full of Commie Dollies are dangling by a rope that gets frayed with every Yao Ming first round exit. Let’s get real: no one cares about the Jazz. Assorted basketball junkies like myself appreciate the way they play, but no one outside of Utah openly roots for them. Houston, on the other hand, has 2 megastars that will A) increase TV ratings drastically, B) stoke the global influence of NBA basketball, and C) create twice as much stateside press. When was the last time you read a fawning, saliva-stained column about Matt Harpring? You figure it all out. Stretch says the fix could be in.
Phoenix (2) versus Los Angeles (7)
Picking this series scares me to death. Both of these teams seem ripe for a letdown in the playoffs. Phoenix just seems a little off, like a car driving with only three tires or something. The Lakers remind me of N’Sync right about the time Justin Timberlake started getting famous. It was like all the other guys looked at him and just thought “Uh oh.” That’s what the Lakers’ team has been doing for three months with Kobe. Just standing around staring at him saying “Uh oh.” On the one hand, I could see Phil Jackson coaching these guys through a massive upset of a series. On the other hand, that could knock out the possibility of a Spurs-Suns second round series, and those are always fun, mostly because the Spurs almost always clobber them. One of the funniest things to me about the Suns is watching their bravado melt away like cheap makeup in the rain when they face a team like the Spurs that doesn’t let them pull all that fun n’ gun crap. Marion disappearing to the corners and standing in silence on offense, Barbaro playing like he is in a constant state of wetting himself (“What’s this? People moving their feet to cut me off from the basket? Aaughh!”), Nash spending a lot of time getting acquainted with the back of Tony Parker’s jersey, D’Antoni in full fledged Denture Show-off Mode, and—my favorite—the increasingly goofy and enraged play of Amare. The last time they played, Amare became so frustrated by Tim Duncan that he just kind of devolved into a petulant, elbow-swinging goon, until he abandoned all attempts at jumpers and simply tried to bowl everyone over when he could get his hands on the ball. The prospects of that in a seven game series are hilarious. Nevertheless, vengeance is at hand. Prediction: Lakers in six.
Conspiracy Coefficient: Lakers +2
Are you kidding? Los Angeles? Didn’t Steve Javie try this last year? Goodness gracious, the calls at Staples center are going to be horrid yet again. Look for Bavetta and Salvatore to be prominently involved. Think of the buzz that a Lakers series victory would generate….
San Antonio (3) versus Denver (6)
I think there is a rule somewhere that says the following:
“At no point in the existence of man will a team featuring Allen Iverson defeat a Greg Popovich team featuring Tim Duncan.”
And just in case there isn’t, there should be. Because it’s true.
With apologies to JT, this one will not be in doubt.
My predictions:
Manu Ginobili getting under the skin of at least two different Nuggets players, and producing somewhere between one and five technicals called against Denver.
Tim Duncan eating up Nene and Camby in the post.
AI and Carmelo making Bruce Bowen look a little bit older.
Popovich force-feeding Horry minutes.
Horry playing horribly.
George Karl making menacing statements about Ginobili to the press.
The announcers making conciliatory “Oh, just wait, you’ll see…” remarks about Horry.
And, oh yeah,
Prediction: Spurs in five.
Conspiracy Coefficient: Nuggets +1.5
This number may die down as the playoffs wear on, but the Spurs will be facing an uphill battle with the zebras at first. The refs will feel threatened by the euthanasia of Joey Crawford, and Duncan will be the target of some cheap calls. This will all fall into the Spurs’ master plans, however, as Pop will then unleash from the bench our secret weapon, Fabulous Fabricio.
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