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Conference Championship Picks
01/18/07
by DJ

Call me Nostra-DJ. I have a clean sweep so far. And to think, Clay is the one who writes for Sportsline. But that’s OK HippoNation. I will not punish you for the misappropriations of others. You are going to get my expert picks nonetheless. That being said, I now have the stiff task of defending my Super Bowl pick from the AFC: The Colts. I have come to believe that the Pats win because they are now an institution, like Duke or something. They fill in spots around superstars with role players that want nothing more to win. They are like this faceless army coming at you with everything they’ve got. And I picked against them. Shit. But some good will come of this: If the Pats win, I WILL NEVER, EVER AGAIN IN MY LIFE, bet against the Pats in the postseason, AND never ever again bet on the Colts again past the first round. This is my first year doing picks so you live and learn. Here are the picks.

Saints at Bears

There is a reason why this game is the first game of the day. Really, it’s because no one outside of those two cities cares. Don’t get me wrong, it’d be awesome if the Saint’s story lead them to the Super Bowl, but to be honest if they don’t make it, they will still be the darlings of the NFL and it’ll be all good. Chicago clearly has the most to lose here. Here is why they will lose:

1. During the Seahawks game, Aikman pointed out that the Offensive Coordinator for the Bears might have been in the running for the Miami job. This was when Chicago had like 3 drives in the 4th quarter in Seahawks territory needing a score. In those drives they threw about 8 halfback swing passes and 5 slants. Why? You finally get Grossman some confidence then you make calls that say, “Let’s quit while we’re ahead Rex.” Rex actually made vertical passes this game. He played decent. The Seahawks secondary was shaky to say the least, I mean one of the dudes back there (who got a pick off Grossman actually) was a LOAN OFFICER at one point. Why not open the playbook up a little? The announcers said he was “checking down” to his 3rd option, but it was obvious he was going to the flat from the start. There is safe, and then there is wearing three rubbers safe. The Bears chose the latter. The result was a long ass field goal try just to tie the game. There always seems to be questions about the plays he calls. Lucky Gould has aggards made of smelt iron. If this guy gets the Miami job they will suck even worse next year.

2. Some one called the worst time out in the history of the NFL playoff history right before OT with two seconds to go. Seattle was stopped and it was about to be fourth down. The Bears logic was “Let’s call a timeout to let Hester get a chance at a return.” Good in theory, but they waited like 10 seconds too late. So they gave Seattle a free last second play of the game, a Hail Mary (that Hasselbeck had to throw out of bounds, casting a foreboding shadow for OT if you ask me…how can you not get off a Hail Mary?). They showed Urlacher in a WTF?!?! moment afterwards. You can’t do things like that and expect to win a championship.

3. Corporate doorknob U2 has a song with Green Day (say it ain’t so…please don’t sell out guys) called “The Saints are Coming” about the Hurricane Katrina disaster and it would be a perfect lead in song for the Saints going to the Super Bowl. The timing is just too perfect. It almost has to happen. That, and I’m not ready to hear that “Who ‘Dat” song and see endless replays of the Super Bowl video Ditka’s Bears made if they make it.

4. The Saints are on the road, but are 6-2 on the road this year and can play loose because they have nothing to prove. In the past two and a half months at home including the playoffs, the Bears have lost two teams that didn’t make the playoffs (Miami and Green Bay), and had to go to OT twice to beat the Bucs and Seahawks. So it’s not like they are a lock there. That’s probably why they didn’t even sell out the game, which is really pitiful if you think about it. There were better options in Chi-Town than go to your home team’s playoff game? For real? That’s sad.

5. The Bears just can’t win if they can’t attack the Saints in the air (this point kind of ties in with #1). The only reason Philly hung around is big plays and they were always in attack mode. The Bears can only throw so many 5 yard and under passes. They barely stretched the field enough last week, but when is the last time they have had back-to-back good weeks from Rex? Plus the added must win pressure? Not gonna happen.

6. Granted the Bear’s D is good, but it got ripped by a gimpy Shaun Alexander last week in the second half. And I honestly think Hasselback was trying to throw the game by giving them the ball on the worst interception in playoff history, bar none, by beating out the one(s) Pittsburgh’s Neil O’Donnell threw against the Cowboys in Super Bowl XXX. The Seahawks tried to give it to the Bears and the Bears still almost lost. The Saints are way too diverse even without Joe Horn, and will keep the Bears on their heels, plus will not make nearly the amount of mistakes the Seahawks did towards the end.

The Saints 31-Bears 13. And Hester and Gould score all those points.

Pats at Indy

This is the only pick this year that I may end up regretting. Normally I have at least 85% confidence in all my picks. But this one frightens the beejeezus out of me, like waking up next to a pale, stark naked Glenn Close after an all night bender. I may have to pull a Coyote Ugly and gnaw my arm off to get away from this pick. My wife, who has been fired up this playoff season, picked the Pats to win and her reasons made all too much sense. But I will stand by my decision: These are the reasons that the Pats scare me in this game (more so, these are the reason why I SHOULD pick the Pats, but whatever…GO COLTS!!)

1. The Pats are only giving up 16.5 PPG in the post season, and seem to get timely stops whenever they need them, and the Colts can’t score, averaging only 14 PPG this post season.

2. The Colts have been their whipping boy.

3. In four out of their last six playoff games the Colts have scored under 18 points dating back to ’04 and two of those were against the Pats when they score 17 points combined.

4. In five out of their last six playoff games the Pats have scored over 24 points.

5. No team in football makes better game plans to stop a single team from week to week than the Pats. It’s like they truly put the last week behind them no matter the result and start from scratch and come up with a personalized game plan for each opponent. In the 4th quarter, the Chargers were completely mismanaged and outcoached by Belichek & Co from the 2-pt conversions (why didn’t S.D. go for two up seven points at home with LT) to the wasting of time-outs.

6. Have you noticed the new levels of random disrespect the Pats have had after each W this post season? Belichek pushing a reporter after the Jets game, and against the Chargers some Pats players mocking Merriman’s dance at midfield kind of give off this “Fuck you it’s about us” attitude. This gives them an edge they haven’t had in the past. I kind of like it.

Here are the reasons why the Colts might pull it out:

1. The Colts have only given up 14 points the whole playoffs. I figure I should give the best stat for the Colts first. Now it gets ugly because I am reaching…

2. The Colts are a notoriously good turf team

3. The offense for Indy is balanced, more so than recent years. Even though they aren’t scoring that much, at least they aren’t one-dimensional. It actually helps them that they don’t have a go to guy that the Pats can key on because well, that’s how they beat the Chargers.
History is begging me to change my pick but I won’t dammit. I will come out from this game a better person regardless of the outcome. I’m sticking to my guns because your first instinct is usually right.

Colts 27-Pats 24. Don’t make me a liar boys…

Here are some random notes from the weekend. Did anybody remember Phil Simms on CBS announcing the game? He was terrible and uttered the worst possible analogy that jumped around from dogs, cars, linebackers, and interceptions. And he just kept talking to himself. The second thing was why the hell were both fields so torn up? Didn’t both home teams have a week off to prepare? What the hell were both grounds crews doing during the off week? Sorry about the randomness of that last paragraph at the end, but that’s they way my mind works sometimes. So there are my picks and once again, avoid at your own peril.

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